Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson did not get a friendly reception during his introductory talks with the Russians and Sergey Lavrov made clear the feelings of the Russian administration towards Trump’s missile strike on Syria the other week. In only three months, Donald Trump has managed to sour the US-Russian relations that were hopefully strong in the beginning of his tenure as President. Ironically, the 2016 Election-hacking scandal is still going on, with a dossier alleging that the Russians helped Donald Trump attain office and a recent arrest in Spain of a Russian hacker believed to be linked gives weight to the hypothesis.
I can’t help thinking that if the Russians did ensure a Trump victory by sabotaging votes, this has backfired monumentally which begs the other question: did Russia back Trump knowing that he would cause fractures in bilateral global relations? Does it even make sense? Why would you put someone in a position of absolute power knowing that they will likely cause friction between other countries?
Could we even assume for a second that Putin and his administration engineered the Trump victory? Surely, a nation as paranoid and seasoned to intrigue as Russia would be able to gauge Trump’s character from the offset, knowing full-well that his firebrand Republicanism would undoubtedly shift global politics into a new, unstable phase?
We are getting more information each day about the chemical attack on Syria and despite al-Assad disputing that he did not authorise the airstrike that killed more than seventy people in Khan Sheikhun. Pentagon radar systems say differently but was Trump right to fire rockets into Syria, allegedly killing at least seven innocent people?
A few countries say so, including the UK, Israel, France and Saudi Arabia but that’s hardly the whole of the United Nations. Many countries sat on the fence, benignly saying they understood the countermeasures taken by the US. Controversy is surrounding the debate as to whether Trump’s action violated the UN Charter.
Vladimir Putin’s opinion of Donald Trump has gone from a glowing prognosis of bilateral friendship to one of soured distrust, with Putin stating that relations ‘may be at an all-time low’. Bearing in mind the Cold War and the Cuban Missile Crisis, describing these current events as ‘an all-time low’ is not to be taken lightly.
Russia hotly disputes the action taken by the US and says this it will bolster the Syrian Army’s armaments in its fight against the rebel factions, firmly in support of the al-Assad regime. Furthermore, it states that the US ‘faked’ the intelligence that precipitated the missile strike against Syria, a sentiment reinforced by al-Assad who directly accuses the West of scheming against Syria.
This is only one part of the global problem. In the Southeast Asian areas, Donald Trump is sending a naval fleet into the South China Sea as a show of muscle against North Korea’s intentions of testing ICBM’s or nuclear weapons. North Korea states that, if it perceives the naval fleet as a threat (which it will) then it will initiate a nuclear strike against its antagonist. China has allegedly sent 150,000 troops to its North Korean border as a show of support against the tests and is pleading for a peaceful resolution. China has sanctioned North Korea’s coal exports and hit the economy hard. Now would be a good time for Trump to withdraw his naval fleet and let the Chinese and take charge of the situation. But it won’t happen, I’m sure.
Technically, Trump is fuelling the fire by sending in the US naval fleet to the South China Sea, poking a raging dog through the bars of its cage. North Korea has less respect for the US than it does for it’s Chinese neighbours and provoking the regime will only lead to a self-destructive act of war. North Korea has stated, in no uncertain terms that it will launch a nuclear strike against the US if provoked.
North Korea isn’t the only issue. In addition, Donald Trump has issued warnings to China about its ownership and expansion of the disputed Paracel and Spratley Islands, causing further deterioration between China-US relations. Despite their meeting and the eating of fucking chocolate cake (somehow meant to symbolize a union of accord), Trump and Xi Jinping still have their differences of opinion concerning the South China Sea. Trump would do well to remember that Russia is a solid ally of China, a great business partner and diplomatic associate.
In his first few months as President, Donald Trump has managed to piss off several nations and force other UN countries to declare their commitment to or against his proposals for war. England, blindly simpering along beside America like the fucking moon orbiting Earth agrees wholeheartedly with America and why wouldn’t it? They bailed us out in the war and it only took about sixty years to pay back the loan.
Two centuries ago, Russia was in a very different position. It didn’t have the power it has today in respect of gas and oil because these things were new and yet to be appropriated. Today, it is an energy powerhouse, the largest producer of petroleum and the largest exporter of gas. China was yet to become the wealthiest nation on Earth as it is today, by far the most populated country on the planet and also the most militarized.
Both of these countries are far more powerful than the United States and together, their might would be unparalleled. It has taken centuries of wars and dispute for the United States to build good relations with both China and Russia and it seems this will now be undone in less than six months.
Here’s my prediction: Trump will send the navy into the South China Sea and Pyongyang will attack something, probably South Korea or the fleet itself. America will retaliate and North Korea will be seized, the regime deposed. China will not be happy, their security compromised by the conglomeration of the Koreas under US control. They will demand a withdrawal and it will be ignored. Consequently, they will militarize further in the Paracels and Spratleys, pissing off Trump after he specifically told China not to expand any further. Russia will step in to back China and this will escalate into another confrontation.
An investigation will be launched into the chemical weapons attack and Russia and Turkey will shut America out of the loop. The Middle East will become a wall of silence against America. I don’t know what the findings will be but Trump better hope that it wasn’t a staged attack else he will have breached the UN Charter and must be held accountable.England, France and the other cheerleaders will lose global kudos and the American government will be heavily discredited. If it is a Syrian-led campaign and it is proved that al-Assad was responsible then I like to think that Turkey, Iran and Russia will use their clout to exile the fiendish al-Assad and replace him with a much more socially acceptable Sunni Muslim as opposed to a Ba’athist. I feel even the Shia Iran will find this a happy medium despite their conflicting beliefs.
In the interim, Trump may very well declare all-out war on Syria using the breach of Geneva Convention protocols as the catalyst, ruining any chance of a quieter resolution. I imagine England will jump on the band-wagon and the UN will be coerced into supporting the action. I cannot imagine Russia’s retaliation to a declaration of war on Syria and technically, one has already been made by Trump firing Tomahawks into Syria.If it happens again, I can envisage direct military action being taken by the Russians, maybe backed by the Turks, Iranians and Chinese.
Conclusion (if there even is one):
This is all too convenient, these events could have been foretold with Trump in the power seat. He can’t just point at al-Assad and say ‘you’re fired’, he has misjudged his own importance in the scheme of global affairs. He might be the most powerful man in America but he is not in charge of the most powerful country in the world and it would be wrong for him to make his voters believe otherwise. America is significantly important to global economics but it is not the driving force behind resources and armaments. Those privileges are divided up among countries that mostly have poor relations with America (as of late) and these countries can sanction other countries, causing economic instability across world markets and cutting off vital transcontinental gas and oil lines. If the countries that had a beef with the US all banded together, America would crumble under the pressure and likely self-destruct.
Is all of this fucking mess engineered to happen, not by God but by a more insidious political force? What if the Russians AND the Chinese conspired to put Trump in place, knowing full well that his testosterone-driven behaviour would upset the fragile diplomatic balances currently worked on by Russia, Israel, Turkey, China, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Palestine (what’s left of it), Syria, the list goes on. The number of levels that Russia operates on with regard to trying to establish relations and balance between feuding nations is many. It is truly a skilled mediator and enjoys relations with the unlikeliest of bedfellows including Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, Latin America, India, Pakistan, etc, etc. It’s influence reaches deep into every continent with the exception of North America. Both the US and Canada are not on good terms with Russia.
The ‘Trump Wall’ will alienate North America from the South and essentially, it will be another foothold for Russia and China both with interests in the South. Interestingly, Putin has gone a long way to re-establishing good relations with the Latin American countries, something overlooked by his predecessors. Russia has interests economically in Africa and China is its biggest trading partner. Trump is trying to get in there but it’s too little too late, I feel and the African countries will always side with China.
The list of countries with poor relations with Russia and China is far shorter than the ones in favourable states of accord. The list of countries dependent on China and Russia for economic stability is also lengthy.
Compare this to the amount of countries that now views America in a positive light and the difference is quite marked. Why so I feel that there is a campaign afoot to discredit the United States and Trump is running like a clockwork mouse, predictable and linear? Am I the only person that feels that too much is happening too quickly and all the countries of the world are being dragged into the mix, irrespective of involvement in wars directly?
Even Israel is grumbling about Trump’s next move and its implications for global stability even though it wholeheartedly praises the rocket attacks on the Syrian airbase. Supportive as the Jewish state may be, it recognizes that some dogs should be kept muzzled and leashed for their own protection as well as those around them.
Economically, a two-pronged war would cost the United States dearly and which countries would be there to offer financial support, to ease the strain on energy and resources, on collapsing markets? I can’t even say what South America would do but it probably would be on the promise of heavy remuneration. They might even just watch America fold like a house of cards.
Between them , Russia and China own the Middle East military markets and therefore, despite a lack of actual military bases in the Middle East they have great influence over the economies and have embassies in most countries between them, if not all of them.
China supports South Africa and Russia has interests in the North. We can’t even count poor old Australia, paranoid about Russia and stuck, isolated and surrounded by friends of both China and Russia. By proxy, New Zealand is also isolated.
Look at the facts: If America sanctioned Russia and China in terms of trade and resources, freezing assets etc. it would not cripple either country. Between them and their allies, they have the support network to survive without the United States as a trading partner. Essentially, there is nothing in America that cannot be sourced elsewhere. They will never starve nor run out of gas and oil. Between them, China and Russia control a vast portion of the world’s economy.
Turn that around and imagine if Russia and China sanctioned America and not only that, all their sympathizers also refused to trade. If America were cut out of the economic loop, I doubt it would survive for long. similarly, England would fade away and Europe as a whole would suffer if Russia decided to stop oil and gas supplies to the continent. Countries could be pressured into excommunicating America, coerced into trade deals with Russia and China, along with their supporters. The United Nations would not fall apart but change hands and ethics as Russia and China took an equal share of control.
Would Communism reawaken in Russia and merge with the Chinese ethics? It’s a scary thought but not an impossibility, not in my paranoid mind.
So, should we prepare for war? I don’t know but it’s worth considering. People say Trump is unpredictable but I say the opposite. We all know where this is heading and that he won’t back down on his principles. He will incite North Korea into military action and he will provoke Syria further. Already, a MOAB has been dropped on Afghanistan (today, actually) so the type of hardware is getting much deadlier. The next step up from the American ‘mother of all bombs’ is Russia’s ‘father of all bombs’ and after that, it’s nuclear-grade weaponry. Where will it end?
Getting Trump in office is like opening a fucking back door on a windy day whilst building a fragile house of cards. They all collapse and somebody has to pick up the pieces and start again. Do the sensible thing, America. Force his ass out of office before he hits the nuclear button and dooms us all.
But then again, maybe that’s all part of the plan?